Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 396 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 396 · LGA → ORD

departs 4:23 PM ET · arrives 6:02 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from LGA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.40 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 396 · LGA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?