Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 714 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 714 · PHL → VCE

departs 7:29 PM ET · arrives 9:46 AM CEST

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at VCE more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to VCE?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Arrivals into VCE at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

VCE (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 714 · PHL → VCE

Odds over time

How late will it get to VCE?