Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 753 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 753 · PHL → ORD

departs 5:36 PM ET · arrives 6:52 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

73% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
26%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 5pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.48 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 753 · PHL → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?