Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 92 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 92 · PHL → ZRH

departs 5:52 PM ET · arrives 7:15 AM CEST

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at ZRH more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ZRH?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Arrivals into ZRH at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ZRH (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 92 · PHL → ZRH

Odds over time

How late will it get to ZRH?