Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 993 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 993 · PHL → CMH

departs 12:50 PM ET · arrives 2:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CMH?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at CMH that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ CMH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CMH (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 993 · PHL → CMH

Odds over time

How late will it get to CMH?