Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 279 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AS 279 · SEA → PDX

departs 8:38 AM PT · arrives 9:34 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into PDX at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 279 · SEA → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?