Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 499 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AS 499 · PDX → SEA

departs 6:19 AM PT · arrives 7:17 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at SEA that day

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from PDX are usually not late

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 499 · PDX → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?