Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 519 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AS 519 · CVG → SEA

departs 8:37 AM ET · arrives 10:19 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0 mi forecast at CVG that day

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Other factors

↓ CVG usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CVG (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0 mi Precip0.12 in

SEA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 519 · CVG → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?