Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1234
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
B6 1234 · SFO → BOS
departs 2:32 PM PT · arrives 11:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 49%
Mon 10/19 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±3 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.