Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
B6 1851 · JFK → CUN
departs 9:47 AM ET · arrives 12:50 PM EST
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Tue 10/13 23%
Wed 10/14 14%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 22%
Sat 10/17 23%
Sun 10/18 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at CUN more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CUN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at CUN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CUN?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
9am departures from JFK are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,267 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CUN (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.