Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 2786
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
B6 2786 · RDU → JFK
departs 12:13 PM ET · arrives 1:52 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Tue 10/13 18%
Wed 10/14 19%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 35%
Sat 10/17 33%
Sun 10/18 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,267 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.