Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 616
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
B6 616 · SFO → JFK
departs 12:00 AM PT · arrives 8:25 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Tue 10/13 11%
Wed 10/14 8%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 15%
Sat 10/17 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Other factors
↑
JFK is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 7.33333 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.