Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 864
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
B6 864 · ORD → FLL
departs 2:57 PM CT · arrives 7:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Tue 10/13 24%
Wed 10/14 22%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 37%
Sat 10/17 43%
Sun 10/18 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
65%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
65%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at FLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to FLL?
On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
2pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.40 in
FLL (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.