Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4296
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
C5 4296 · DAY → IAD
departs 10:26 AM ET · arrives 12:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 19%
Sun 10/18 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave DAY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at IAD that day
↓
DAY usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DAY (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 233 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.08 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.