Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4874
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
C5 4874 · ROC → IAD
departs 7:53 PM ET · arrives 9:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/14 11%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 17%
Sun 10/18 15%
Mon 10/19 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at IAD that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ROC
↓
ROC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ROC (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.