Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4917
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
C5 4917 · IAH → MFE
departs 10:08 AM CT · arrives 11:40 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/14 15%
Thu 10/15
Sun 10/18 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±3 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at MFE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MFE?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from IAH are often late
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Arrivals into MFE at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MFE (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.