Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4922
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
C5 4922 · ROA → IAD
departs 6:16 AM ET · arrives 7:28 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Wed 10/14 6%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 12%
Sun 10/18 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave ROA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ROA is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at IAD that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ROA
Weather at each end
ROA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.02 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.