Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
CATHAY PACIFIC · FLIGHT CX 844
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
CX 844 · HKG → JFK
departs 2:04 AM HKT · arrives 5:35 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14 13%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 17%
Sat 10/17 22%
Sun 10/18 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave HKG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
CX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HKG
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
HKG (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 7.33333 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.