Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1156
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
DL 1156 · AUS → BOS
departs 2:30 PM CT · arrives 7:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 47%
Wed 10/14 25%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 37%
Sat 10/17 26%
Sun 10/18 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 42% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.