Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1181
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
DL 1181 · FLL → LGA
departs 3:05 PM ET · arrives 6:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Wed 10/14 15%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 33%
Sat 10/17 20%
Sun 10/18 23%
Mon 10/19 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from FLL are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
FLL (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.