Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1274
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
DL 1274 · DTW → MCO
departs 4:57 PM ET · arrives 7:38 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Tue 10/13 14%
Wed 10/14 14%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 26%
Sat 10/17 26%
Sun 10/18 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at DTW that day
↑
4pm departures from DTW are often late
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.12 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.