Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1419
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
DL 1419 · JFK → FLL
departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 6:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14 12%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 34%
Sat 10/17 33%
Sun 10/18 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at FLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FLL?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FLL (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.