Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1651
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15 Tomorrow
DL 1651 · LGA → BOS
departs 9:01 PM ET · arrives 10:07 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 56%
Sun 10/18 31%
Mon 10/19 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±8 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.