Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1787
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
DL 1787 · DTW → IAD
departs 3:08 PM ET · arrives 4:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14 13%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 24%
Sun 10/18 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late
↑
3pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
IAD is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
This flight has been late 16% of the time recently
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.