Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1821
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
DL 1821 · PWM → DTW
departs 4:52 PM ET · arrives 6:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Tue 10/13 37%
Wed 10/14 25%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 36%
Sat 10/17 27%
Sun 10/18 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at DTW that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
PWM is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PWM
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PWM (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.