Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2816
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
DL 2816 · ORD → BOS
departs 3:19 PM CT · arrives 6:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Tue 10/13 50%
Wed 10/14 20%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 34%
Sun 10/18 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
30%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
3pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↓
BOS usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.50 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.