Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 856 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

DL 856 · DFW → LGA

departs 1:58 PM CT · arrives 6:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 856 · DFW → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?