Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 8846
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
DL 8846 · IAD → EWR
departs 3:56 PM ET · arrives 5:08 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at IAD that day
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.