Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1015
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
F9 1015 · SJU → PHL
departs 6:13 AM AT · arrives 10:13 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Tue 10/13 18%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 26%
Sat 10/17 21%
Sun 10/18 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↑
SJU is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from SJU are usually not late
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.