Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1016
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
F9 1016 · PHL → SJU
departs 6:26 AM ET · arrives 10:24 AM AT
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Tue 10/13 27%
Wed 10/14 19%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 27%
Sat 10/17 26%
Sun 10/18 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into SJU at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJU (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.