Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1165
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
F9 1165 · SJU → PHL
departs 3:10 PM AT · arrives 7:08 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 46%
Sun 10/18 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.