Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1578
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
F9 1578 · RSW → PHL
departs 12:43 PM ET · arrives 3:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Tue 10/13 14%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 36%
Sun 10/18 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±3 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RSW (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.