Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1596
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
F9 1596 · ORD → ATL
departs 10:37 AM CT · arrives 1:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14 25%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 26%
Sat 10/17 19%
Sun 10/18 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at ORD that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
10am departures from ORD are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.17 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.