Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1611
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
F9 1611 · MCO → CMH
departs 2:51 PM ET · arrives 5:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 10%
Sat 10/17 17%
Sun 10/18 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at CMH that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CMH (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.