Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1720
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
F9 1720 · SNA → PHX
departs 2:27 PM PT · arrives 3:53 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 34%
Sun 10/18 29%
Mon 10/19 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.