Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1823
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
F9 1823 · SJU → MCO
departs 3:10 AM AT · arrives 6:10 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14 14%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 20%
Sat 10/17 18%
Sun 10/18 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
SJU is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.