Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2021
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
F9 2021 · PHL → DTW
departs 12:15 PM ET · arrives 1:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 32%
Sun 10/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
12pm departures from PHL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.