Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2059
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
F9 2059 · PHL → RDU
departs 8:45 AM ET · arrives 10:18 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Tue 10/13 14%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 15%
Sat 10/17 13%
Sun 10/18 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↑
PHL is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.