Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2105
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
F9 2105 · DEN → PHX
departs 2:07 PM MT · arrives 3:09 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 28%
Sat 10/17 20%
Sun 10/18 31%
Mon 10/19 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 37 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from DEN are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.31 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.