Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2446
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
F9 2446 · LAX → ORD
departs 12:19 AM PT · arrives 6:22 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Tue 10/13 23%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 30%
Sat 10/17 32%
Sun 10/18 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.