Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2506
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
F9 2506 · MCO → PHL
departs 6:45 AM ET · arrives 9:27 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 10/13 12%
Wed 10/14 10%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 18%
Sat 10/17 16%
Sun 10/18 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.