Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2537
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
F9 2537 · PHL → TPA
departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 8:55 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 13%
Sun 10/18 13%
Mon 10/19 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.