Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2748
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
F9 2748 · DEN → TPA
departs 11:23 AM MT · arrives 5:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Tue 10/13 19%
Wed 10/14 22%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 21%
Sat 10/17 19%
Sun 10/18 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
11am departures from DEN are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.30 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.