Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2861
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
F9 2861 · PHL → JAX
departs 8:15 AM ET · arrives 10:40 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 25%
Sat 10/17 21%
Sun 10/18 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
PHL is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.