Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2862
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
F9 2862 · JAX → PHL
departs 11:28 AM ET · arrives 1:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 26%
Sat 10/17 21%
Sun 10/18 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.