Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4371
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
F9 4371 · DEN → SNA
departs 10:44 AM MT · arrives 12:14 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 14%
Sun 10/18 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 37 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↓
This flight has been late 12% of the time recently
↓
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at SNA that day
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.31 in
SNA (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.