Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4561
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
F9 4561 · MSY → DEN
departs 10:34 AM CT · arrives 12:31 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 26%
Sun 10/18 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 34 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.39 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.