Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4807
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
F9 4807 · PHL → TPA
departs 12:58 PM ET · arrives 3:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 10/14 10%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 36%
Sat 10/17 22%
Sun 10/18 26%
Mon 10/19 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.