Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 4436
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
G4 4436 · DTW → LWB
departs 9:34 AM ET · arrives 11:02 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LWB more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LWB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at LWB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LWB?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at LWB that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Arrivals into LWB at that hour are usually not late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LWB (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.