Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DENVER AIR CONNECTION · FLIGHT KG 3104 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

KG 3104 · CEZ → DEN

departs 6:54 AM MT · arrives 8:40 AM MT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts +22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at DEN that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at CEZ

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

CEZ (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

KG 3104 · CEZ → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?